When less becomes noticeable: Understanding what scarcity means for brands and shoppers

Scarcity has become more than a temporary disruption. It is redefining how brands operate and how consumers behave. From production lines to shopping baskets, it is now a structural force shaping every decision on both sides of the shelf.

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Why scarcity is reshaping the shelf

What we see in stores results from many pressures converging at once. Unpredictable weather disrupts harvests, political tension and shifting trade routes raise energy and transport costs, and supply chains remain strained by staff shortages and delays.

The impact is clear in every aisle. Cocoa shortages drive up chocolate prices, sugar fluctuations force recipe changes, and limited aluminium supplies make brands rethink packaging.

For shoppers, these developments are visible in their baskets: higher prices, smaller packs, and missing favourites. For brands, they create a new strategic challenge: how to adapt to scarcity while protecting trust and loyalty.

What scarcity means for brand strategy

Scarcity is no longer an operational issue; it is a strategic one. It shapes how brands produce, communicate, and build trust. Every decision, from reformulating a recipe to resizing a pack, influences how consumers judge a brand’s integrity and value.

When ingredients or materials are harder to source, brands must adapt. The challenge lies in balancing flexibility with consistency: knowing what can change without undermining what defines the brand.

To navigate this environment, brands should focus on three key priorities:

1. Protect what defines the product

Identify which elements can change without compromising the brand promise and which must remain constant. Validate those decisions with consumers before they reach the shelf to ensure the experience still feels authentic.

2. Be radically transparent

Consumers can accept higher prices, smaller packs, or new formats when they understand both what has changed and why. Silence or unclear communication erodes credibility. Clear messaging across packaging (e.g., “now 400 g, was 500 g”), shelf (e.g., temporary tags explaining supply issues), and digital channels (e.g., concise updates linking to more details) helps build understanding and trust.

3. Innovate within limits

Scarcity can drive innovation. Agile brands are finding smarter ways to deliver value: through refills, concentrated formulas, lighter materials, or modular formats that make production more efficient and sustainable.

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Scarcity is forcing brands to do better with less, rethinking how they create and communicate value while protecting trust. Many still assume loyalty will hold or that small changes go unnoticed, but consumers see and interpret every adjustment. This is why we explored how people experience scarcity and what it means for brand strategy today.

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Our research: How consumers notice, feel, and adapt

To move beyond assumptions, we conducted a virtual audience study among European FMCG shoppers aged 20 to 65. Virtual audiences are AI-simulated, human-enriched models that mirror real consumers complete with names, jobs, lifestyles, and decision-making styles. They help us explore how people think, feel, and behave in context, allowing quick and realistic testing before going to market.

The sample included both Western and Eastern European markets, capturing diverse shopping habits, household types, income levels and cultural origins.

The findings reveal one thing clearly: scarcity is not just an economic condition, it’s an emotional and behavioural experience.

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1. Scarcity Does Not Go Unnoticed

Consumers do not talk about scarcity, but they feel it. They notice when packs shrink or products taste different. However, what they pick up on  and how they make sense of it, often depends on their income and everyday reality.

“When you see the price of milk go up again, it just hits you right away. You start thinking what you’ll have to skip this week.” - Kristīne Bērziņa, 65, Riga

Lower-income shoppers are the first to spot price increases or smaller pack sizes, while higher-income consumers tend to pick up on quality or provenance cues first (e.g., changes in ingredients). They see these shifts as signs of broader supply pressures rather than unfairness.

“Sometimes, you see, you go to pick up your usual yoghurt, and suddenly the packaging is different, or it's not in its usual spot. It's a small thing, really, but it makes you pause.” — Béatrice Dubois, 57, Lyon

Across all groups, the message is clear: everyone feels scarcity, but what they notice and how they make sense of it depends on their own reality. When brands stay silent, shoppers fill in the blanks themselves. They turn to social media, read reviews, and talk to others to make sense of what happened. In the absence of clear communication, assumptions take over.

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2. Emotion Drives Behaviour

Scarcity sparks emotion before it drives action. Price increases cause irritation, missing favourites create frustration, and quiet shrinkflation feels deceptive. Over time, shoppers become more cautious and selective.

For lower-income consumers, scarcity often brings stress and frustration. Rising prices and hidden shrinkflation feel unfair or even manipulative.

"When I got home and opened it, the cups felt... smaller somehow? ... I checked the label and sure enough - it went from 150g to 125g per cup. Same price though, which really annoyed me."– Anna Kowalska, 28, Warsaw

Higher-income shoppers react more pragmatically, investing extra time or money to secure trusted quality or preferred alternatives.

Despite these differences, one pattern is consistent: transparency can turn irritation into understanding. When brands clearly explain the reasons behind price or pack changes, trust grows, even if people decide to buy less.

“They were honest about why the cheese cost more… I stayed loyal, even if I bought less.” — Aine Murphy, 56, Dublin

Across all groups, consumers are paying closer attention. They read labels, compare unit prices, and switch brands quickly when communication is unclear. Honesty has become the new currency of loyalty.

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3. Scarcity Is Here to Stay

Most consumers no longer see scarcity as temporary. They expect volatility in price, recipes, and availability to continue, and they judge brands by how they handle it.

“I think resource scarcity will continue to play a significant role in how I purchase.” — Sofia Garcia, 27, Madrid

Consumers now expect transparency, reliability, and care. They remember which brands communicated clearly and which stayed silent. The habits formed during recent years (e.g., more deliberate buying or greater price awareness) are here to stay. The brands that treat scarcity as a lasting reality, and adapt their strategy accordingly, will stay relevant.

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Why research matters

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Scarcity forces brands to make fast, high-impact decisions about sourcing, pricing, and communication. Yet without understanding how consumers actually perceive those decisions, even the best intentions can backfire and damage trust.

Research bridges that gap. It turns guesswork into guidance by showing how people notice, interpret, and react to change. At Haystack Consulting, we have a myriad of solutions available to uncover what builds understanding, which messages feel credible, and how brands can communicate change without losing connection.

If scarcity is reshaping your portfolio, now is the time to listen before acting. Let’s explore how to turn constraint into clarity and clarity into trust — together.

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